TECH

What can we expect from 2023 in the mobile market?

This year didn't turn out exactly as we'd hoped. Fortunately, this is not just the case with us, but with almost every analyst in the world, the year was so eventful with logistics problems, supply chains, the Ukrainian conflict and runaway inflation that they were not all together in the hat. But the year is over, we see what happened this year, but despite the many parameters that cannot be planned, we try to map out a little what can be expected in 2023.

Technological advancement... We hope that there will be no revolutionary advances in mobile communication next year either. If we narrow it down specifically to devices in general, it can be said that in addition to even higher prices, we will see slightly better chipsets, slightly better cameras and data communication capabilities across all categories. On the hardware front, however, there may be a change from the chipset manufacturer, Taiwanese MediaTek, which was previously considered more secondary, is squeezing Qualcomm even in the top category, the latest developments in the Dimensity product line seem to be particularly competitive, and every manufacturer is happy not to be subordinated to the capability and development of a single chipset manufacturer.

In front of the camera, the field is slightly divided. While the megapixel war will continue to dominate in the lower segment (they want the highest resolution sensor in the cheapest phone), extra functions will be more prominent in the top models and the size and quality of the sensor will be more important than its resolution. Dedicated ISPs and image processing procedures have already emerged (such as MariSilicon X), which with a good sensor will result in an improvement in image quality, more and more focus will be placed on videos (stabilization, change of view angle, continuous zoom , adjustable aperture), but it will not be significant and the pace of development is overwhelming, cameras are improving step by step.

High-end devices promise ever-increasing luminance for monitors (which is accompanied by ever-increasing consumption) and above a certain price, the image refresh will permanently move away from 60 Hz, while 90 and 120 Hz will appear in the intermediate category, maybe we'll only get there next year to the point where even the cheapest models use it, but you can get a cell phone with a more updated screen for less and less. And in the higher categories we'll find 144 and 165 Hz panels, often emphasizing the touch sensitivity sampling frequency.

The expected advance of phones with folding screens did not happen, now we believe that there will be no big changes in this regard in 2023 either, but perhaps Samsung is not the only option in our market (at least for the design that opens like a book) , but the technology is still expensive. However, there will be more and more prestigious reasons why various manufacturers offer this solution, and if Apple makes this phone, suddenly everyone will want it. And it won't hurt that if there is a playable iPhone, the order for such panels will increase by orders of magnitude, which may even lower prices a little.

Operating time, charging...The Achilles heel of modern phones is still the battery. The only problem is that it takes up a lot of space, but it cannot provide an operating time of more than a day or two, it has to be constantly charged, it gets hot, it is a fire hazard, it cannot touch water, sometimes it has to be divided in multiple cells, and now the EU has also signaled that it will be mandatory to make it interchangeable. For years, decades, we have waited for a breakthrough in technology, but it has often failed and 2023 will be no different.

Of course, energy density is improving every year: a battery with greater capacity can fit in the same space, developing at roughly the same pace as the increasing power demands of the hardware demand. However, manufacturers are also trying to reduce concerns about submersible phones in another way, by increasing the charging speed. In this sense, Apple and Samsung are very careful, but the others have thrown the reins among the horses, in 2022 it was already possible to get a cell phone with a charging speed of 120 watts at home, and in other places 180 and 210 watts solutions are already on the market. market, and that's a bit of a megapixel – if it drags on like a war, we can easily reach the charging power of 250 watts in 2023, which sounds great, if we add that it can bring a charging time of 6-8 minutes.

The other side of the issue is that you need the right charging head (probably GaN) and you have to be very careful about security. Market participants solve this with temperature sensors and smart charging control algorithms, splitting the battery into at least two cells for parallel charging. But space must be left between these cells so they don't interact, which reduces battery capacity, and the wireless charging option requires additional space, which means every manufacturer tries to find a balance between charging speed, capacity and size. of the battery, moreover, so that using the technology does not involve safety concerns and the battery does not degrade too quickly.

Manufacturers...We have no doubt that Samsung and Apple will continue to lead sales unabated, the question is more about who will come after them. The brands of Xiaomi and the BBK group of companies can also be considered strong players, but their current presence in the market is much more volatile. This is clearly demonstrated by the fact that after many, many years of running, Xiaomi seems to be stagnating, which is reflected not only in sales results, but news of downsizing has also started to emerge. The BBK group of companies is a much more diverse structure, where the strength of the bond between the individual brands also varies, so it also induces some internal competition, but Realme was unable to seize the opportunity after its takeoff, they suddenly wanted too much , which now manifests itself in supply and financial difficulties. Oppo strengthens it much more carefully, step by step, although it does not focus on dominating the market with its prices, but its excellent integration with the carrier still helps sales.

Huawei has become a marginal player on the European scene, which is unfortunate because technically they can still produce very high quality devices, but due to lack of software support they are simply not competitive in our region despite all efforts. and tricks. Honor is apparently trying to give an alternative to those who have liked Huawei phones so far, but for now the offer is limited and the primary market is more Asia. Nokia disappeared into the field, what eco-glaze and the promise of long software support can't help, Sony's mobile business is even more a matter of prestige, TCL failed to become a factor in our region, OnePlus also lost its appeal, HTC is still none of us, Asus is an exciting manufacturer, but in total two, special models are appreciated, in the year 2022 only Nothing raked by Carl Pei was able to bring something new to the phones that were very similar years ago, but even they can't make it into the top 10 with a model among manufacturers.

What will be here in 2023? Nothing to shake the earth, Xiaomi has apparently reached the ceiling, Realme has run out of soufflé, Samsung will calmly deliver its new products that are here and there better than last year's but not revolutionary, unifying the offer a little, the Apple will also run the mandatory rounds. Nothing will make a new phone, Oppo will strengthen in our region, Honor will definitely try hard (and we are pushing them too), we don't expect big surprises from Nokia, that is, honestly we don't expect big changes compared to this year.

Uncertainty factors... Just as we did not expect many circumstances in 2022, it is also impossible to know what events will affect the mobile market in 2023. It is already worrying that the coronavirus has been triggered in China, which on the one hand may tear the ability to local production in waves, and on the other hand it also brings with it the development of a mutation that will again cause problems outside China, obviously this is the pessimistic scenario. In addition to all this, the action of workers satisfied with working conditions seems to have intensified in recent times, which can also cause interruptions.

Although a Taiwan-China conflict is floating around on a rhetorical level, an actual military action taking place here would completely destroy the world's electronics market, as all modern chipsets are products of Taiwanese production lines. This is what gives Taiwan a kind of protection, if everything stops there, China will also suffer a lot. It's up in the air that the US-Chinese embargo policy will continue to tighten, which was currently mostly distasteful from Huawei's point of view, but other manufacturers could also be targeted, which would once again rearrange the balance of mobile power.

Added to all this is uncontrolled inflation and economic recession of different intensity at regional level, which logically means that fewer people will want to change their mobile phone. At the same time, this strengthens the role of software support and the durability of devices can also be a better consideration. In addition, we wrote just above that there will be no revolutionary changes in 2023 either, which means that it is no longer the case that the new phones released every year know so much more that last year's model is worth replacing. For some manufacturers, the product update interval is increasingly rare, Asus, for example, has not been keen to maintain this pace for some time, but Sony's new products are also rarer, and other companies launch new models , but keep the previous version on the market for a long time also at a good price.

Whatever happens, it is clear that the industry is vulnerable in many ways, but at the same time, in recent years (perhaps since covid) there have been efforts to make supply chains redundant. The chipset and display market is no longer singlestage, but there is still a strong uncertainty factor in the mobile market, if nothing decisive happens, the number of alternative suppliers and the amount of raw material sources may increase in 2023, which even 2024 can already give more serious stability. And if something happens, then everything will have to be planned again…

Source: www.mobilarena.hu