TECH
Why won't the next financial crisis originate in the stock markets?
In 2008, a combination of misunderstood risks swept through the banking system and triggered a crisis that affected virtually the entire globe. Nearly two decades later, a completely different threat is beginning to worry some top financial authorities. It does not hinge on subprime mortgages, nor does it necessarily start on Wall Street. It could emerge silently from within the technological infrastructure that keeps banks and markets running every day.
Artificial intelligence promises to make the financial system more efficient. Banks already use algorithms to detect fraud, assess risk, analyze vast amounts of data, and automate various processes.
But this transformation can also create vulnerabilities.
Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England and Chair of the Financial Stability Board, sent a letter to G20 finance ministers and central bank governors warning of risks associated with the most advanced artificial intelligence models.
One major concern centers on cybersecurity.
Frontier AI systems could drastically alter the scale and cost of digital attacks. Tools capable of performing complex tasks with greater autonomy could facilitate sophisticated cyber operations and accelerate attacks on critical infrastructure.
In the financial system, a breach doesn't necessarily have to result in the direct theft of billions to cause massive consequences.
Sometimes, simply preventing institutions from functioning is enough.
If customers cannot access their accounts, banks stop processing payments, or markets begin to doubt certain institutions' ability to continue operating, a particularly dangerous element for any financial system emerges: a loss of confidence.
And there is a feature of current banking infrastructure that could rapidly amplify this problem.
Many banks rely on the same companies—and that changes everything. A bank may appear to be an independent institution to its customers, but much of the technology infrastructure used by the financial sector depends on third-party providers.
Cloud services, data processing, and various digital systems may be shared across multiple institutions.
This creates efficiency, but also concentration. A successful attack on a major technology provider could simultaneously affect multiple organizations that rely on its infrastructure.
In other words, a criminal wouldn't need to attack banks one by one.
This is one of the scenarios that worry Bailey. Artificial intelligence could make attacks faster and more sophisticated precisely at a time when key parts of the financial system are concentrated among a relatively small group of providers.
The risk doesn't stop there.
The IMF has also been drawing attention to another phenomenon: as algorithms take over functions related to credit, investments, and risk analysis, different institutions may end up reacting similarly to the same signals.
Imagine dozens of systems detecting a threat and deciding to sell assets at virtually the same time.
A decision that might take human traders minutes or hours to make could happen in a fraction of a second.
The financial market has seen similar episodes even before the current generation of artificial intelligence.
The problem isn't just a hacker using artificial intelligence... In May 2010, US markets experienced the so-called "flash crash." Within minutes, major indices plummeted and then recovered much of their losses.
The episode demonstrated how automated systems can trigger extremely rapid market movements before humans have enough time to fully grasp what is happening.
With more sophisticated AI models, the challenge takes on a new dimension.
Algorithms can interpret information, modify strategies, and react to market changes at ever-increasing speeds. If different systems reach similar conclusions, their decisions can reinforce one another.
This is where the comparison to 2008 begins to make more sense.
The global financial crisis showed how extremely complex products, interdependence, and a lack of transparency can mask vulnerabilities for a long time.
AI introduces a digital version of this problem.
Some models function as true "black boxes": they deliver results, but it isn't always easy to explain in detail how they arrived at them.
Under normal conditions, this might go unnoticed. During a crisis, however, quickly discovering why dozens of systems are making certain decisions can be crucial.
And waiting until that happens does not appear to be the strategy advocated by the authorities.
There is a surprisingly simple solution to such a high-tech problem...Among the measures mentioned by Bailey is something that seems almost contradictory in the age of cloud computing: keeping recovery systems completely isolated from the internet.
These structures—known as "bare metal"—could allow financial institutions to rebuild their operations following a severe attack.
The logic is simple.
If attackers compromise connected systems, backups that are also connected could be affected as well. A truly isolated copy offers a final line of defense.
But technology alone does not solve the problem.
Bailey advocates for more robust international protocols regarding the development and secure deployment of advanced AI models. This is particularly important because the financial system is global, whereas regulations on artificial intelligence vary significantly from country to country.
The IMF also calls for greater transparency, algorithmic auditing, and clear accountability within institutions.
The goal is not to stop banks from using artificial intelligence.
It is to prevent the pursuit of efficiency from creating vulnerabilities that are only discovered when it is already too late.
AI can also avert the very crisis it might otherwise amplify...There is a significant paradox in this entire scenario.
The artificial intelligence that worries regulators could also become one of the most powerful tools for protecting the financial system.
It can detect fraud more quickly, identify abnormal behavior, analyze risks that would go unnoticed by humans, and enable more efficient oversight.
Therefore, there is no inevitable link between AI and a new financial crisis.
The real risk arises when increasingly powerful systems are combined with a lack of transparency, overly concentrated infrastructure, and inadequate recovery mechanisms.
In 2008, much of the world discovered too late that seemingly dispersed risks were deeply interconnected.
The current warning aims to prevent history from repeating itself in a different form.
This time, however, a potential crisis would not necessarily take months to unfold. In a financial system operating at the speed of algorithms, the interval between the initial problem and its consequences can be much shorter than we are accustomed to imagining.
Major financial crises do not typically start when stock market prices fall; they originate where leverage, hidden debt, and liquidity mismatches accumulate
The shift away from public eWhere the Real Risks Liequities:
-Debt over equities: History shows that panics happen when over-leveraged borrowers and institutions cannot service their obligations (such as the 2007–2008 subprime mortgage collapse). Stock market drops are usually a symptom or reflection of underlying economic pain, not the root structural trigger
-Transparency of public markets: Stock prices are visible, highly regulated, and continuously traded. While high valuations or corrections can hurt investor sentiment, public companies and equity portfolios generally lack the cascading, opaque credit chains that freeze the broader financial system
Where the real risks lie:
-Private credit vulnerabilities: The multi-trillion-dollar private credit and direct lending market—increasingly intertwined with financing massive capital expenditures like the AI and data center boom—features opaque valuations, illiquid assets, and deepening links to institutional portfolios
-The interconnection problem: If economic friction, high interest rates, or project underperformance trigger widespread defaults in private debt, the losses propagate quietly through leveraged finance, insurers, and connected counterparties before anyone notices a public stock ticker crashing
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