TECH

Credit: Samsung
DRAM Prices May Drop Five Percent In 2018
DRAMeXchange's senior research director Avril Wu reported today that it is highly possible for DRAM products to see a five percent decline in the last quarter of the year due to oversupply and weak demand.

DRAM products have enjoyed steady growth for nine consecutive quarters until the third quarter of 2018, when the market began to show weak price growth. PC and server DRAM products prices grew barely, in the range of one to two percent, while mobile DRAM prices stayed flat. Meanwhile, DRAM products faced a price drop during the same quarter. Avril Wu noted that the current spot prices are 10 percent lower than contract prices, which is a good indicator that there will be a general decline in DRAM prices.

Item	3Q18	4Q18 (Prior Version)	4Q18 (Revised Version)
PC DRAM	1~2 percent	-4 percent~Flat	~-5 percent
Server DRAM	~1 percent	-2 percent~Flat	~-5 percent
Mobile DRAM	Discrete: Flat eMCP: -3 percent~Flat	Discrete: -2 percent~Flat eMCP: -2~-5 percent	Discrete: -2~-5 percent eMCP: -3~-8 percent
Consumer DRAM	DDR3: -2 percent DDR4: Flat	DDR3: -3 percent~Flat DDR4: -1~-4 percent	DDR3: ~-3 percent DDR4: ~-5 percent
DRAM ASP	>3 percent	-1~-3 percent	~-5 percent

The revised DRAMeXchange forecast shows that the DRAM and PC DRAM markets could suffer a price drop as great as five percent. The DRAM manufacturers have adjusted their target prices for the upcoming quarter. Samsung has even gone to slow down its memory chip production with the purpose of maintaining stable prices. Meanwhile, the shortage of Intel processors could potentially help lower demand for DRAM products in PCs and notebooks. As for specialized DRAM products, demand has gotten weak and declines since September because of the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.On the mobile end, the launch of the new Apple iPhone is expected to help boost mobile DRAM products. Nevertheless, the market tends to take a conservative approach when it comes to smartphone sales since iPhones are notorious for carrying eye-watering price tags. As a result, DRAMeXchange states that there is a high possibility for oversupply.


Zhiye Liu