TECH

Energy security concerns spur faster renewables growth across a widening constellation of countries

New IEA forecast sees renewable capacity increase in emerging and developing economies outside China matching that in advanced economies for the first time as Hormuz crisis sharpens focus on domestic energy sources

Renewable energy is set to see strong growth across a wider range of countries worldwide in the coming years as governments seek to strengthen energy security and reduce exposure to fuel imports, according to the International Energy Agency.

In its Renewables 2026 report, the IEA said that renewable power capacity will increase by almost 4,800GW between 2026 and 2031, 60% higher than in the previous six-year period. Solar PV will account for more than 75% of this growth, followed by onshore wind.

In its forecasts, the IEA said that renewable capacity growth in emerging and developing economies outside China will match that in advanced economies for the first time.

The trend is being driven by “unprecedented disruptions to global energy markets since the outbreak of the Iran war at the end of February” that have intensified energy security concerns and led to stronger policy support in areas such as Southeast Asia, Africa, the Middle East and India.

China will remain the largest contributor to the global increase in renewable power capacity, but its share is set to decline from over 60% in 2025 to an average of 53% over the forecast period amid changes to its renewable energy policies, the IEA said.

India is emerging as the world’s second-largest growth market, with its total renewable capacity set to more than double by 2031. Growth is also accelerating across Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. Across these regions, the amount of renewable capacity added in the 2026-2031 period is forecast to almost triple compared with the previous six-year period.

“Previously, environmental concerns were the policy priority behind the growth of renewables, whose falling costs have made them a competitive option in many markets – but today, it’s mainly energy security that is driving renewables’ expansion as more and more countries seek to reduce their exposure to imported fuels,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.

“The new chapter of the renewables growth story is a truly global one as their deployment spreads well beyond major markets into every corner of the world. This is making them a key pillar of the global power sector. Today, they account for a third of global electricity generation; in the next five years, they will be getting closer to half of it.”

The report also highlights the importance of secure and diversified supply chains as renewables take on a larger role in energy systems worldwide. India is emerging as an important alternative source of supply, with its share of global solar PV module manufacturing expected to almost double to 17% over the next five years, helping diversify a market that remains highly concentrated.

Renewables, already expanding at a record pace before the current energy crisis, are set to see strong growth across a wider range of countries around the world in the coming years as governments seek to strengthen energy security and reduce their exposure to imported fuels and volatile prices, according to the IEA’s latest report.

Renewables 2026, this year’s edition of the IEA’s annual report on the sector, sees global renewable power capacity increasing by almost 4 800 gigawatts (GW) in the 2026-2031 period, almost 60% more than was added in the previous six-year period. Solar PV is set to account for more than three-quarters of global renewable capacity growth to 2031, followed by onshore wind.

Amid unprecedented disruptions to global energy markets since the outbreak of the Iran war at the end of February, stronger policy support and intensified energy security concerns are driving faster deployment of renewable power across India, Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East. For the first time, the amount of renewable power capacity added in emerging and developing economies outside China is expected to match the amount added in advanced economies in the forecast period.

China will remain the largest contributor to the global increase in renewable power capacity, but its share is set to decline from over 60% in 2025 to an average of 53% over the forecast period amid changes to its renewable energy policies. India is emerging as the world’s second-largest growth market, with its total renewable capacity set to more than double by 2031. Growth is also increasing across Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa. Across these regions, the amount of renewable capacity added in the 2026-2031 period is forecast to almost triple compared with the previous six-year period.

“Previously, environmental concerns were the policy priority behind the growth of renewables, whose falling costs have made them a competitive option in many markets – but today, it’s mainly energy security that is driving renewables’ expansion as more and more countries seek to reduce their exposure to imported fuels,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “The new chapter of the renewables growth story is a truly global one as their deployment spreads well beyond major markets into every corner of the world. This is making them a key pillar of the global power sector. Today, they account for a third of global electricity generation; in the next five years, they will be getting closer to half of it.”

The growth in renewable power additions is not only the result of major installations by utilities and developers; it is also being driven directly by consumers in many countries. Faced with high fuel prices and unreliable electricity supplies in some markets, households and small businesses around the world are increasingly turning to more affordable rooftop solar PV systems that can be installed quickly. These small-scale installations have already helped improve electricity services for around 70 million households worldwide, the report finds.

The report forecasts that the use of renewable energy for transport will rise by more than 60% by 2031, by which point it will cover 6% of the transport sector’s energy demand worldwide. Renewable electricity used by electric vehicles accounts for around 45% of this increase, while biofuels are making the second-largest contribution. As an immediate response to high fuel prices and availability challenges, several countries, notably in Southeast Asia and Latin America, have raised blending mandates, which set the minimum proportion of biofuels that has to be blended into gasoline or diesel sold at the pump. Our forecast for biofuels is revised up by 40% compared with last year’s report.

The report also highlights the importance of secure and diversified supply chains as renewables take on a larger role in energy systems worldwide. India is emerging as an important alternative source of supply, with its share of global solar PV module manufacturing expected to almost double to 17% over the next five years, helping diversify a market that remains highly concentrated.

As solar PV and wind continue to expand rapidly around the world, enhancing power system flexibility becomes critically important for energy security, offering new opportunities in the process. The highest priority is for countries to ensure investment in electricity grids keeps pace with the growth of renewable capacity. This should be complemented by reforms to speed up the connection of new renewable power installations to electricity networks. The amount of advanced-stage renewable energy and storage projects waiting for grid connections worldwide increased by 60% over the past year to 3 000 GW, four times the wind and solar PV capacity connected to the grid last year.

Meanwhile, the deployment of battery storage has been accelerating in many countries, offering an important way to increase the flexibility of electricity systems rapidly. Measures to enable electricity demand to become more flexible are equally important and can be implemented quickly. Digital technologies, including artificial intelligence, can help shift demand towards periods when renewable power supply is abundant, allowing a better use of variable renewable generation sources. Together, these measures will be crucial to ensuring that the rapid expansion of renewables translates into more secure, affordable and reliable energy supplies worldwide.

The quote you provided is the headline of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Renewables 2026 report, released on November 6, 2026.

The report highlights a profound paradigm shift: national energy security and a desire to reduce exposure to volatile imported fossil fuel prices have overtaken environmental concerns as the primary driver for green energy deployment. Driven by severe global energy disruptions (such as conflicts in the Middle East impacting the Strait of Hormuz), governments are rapidly prioritizing domestic green power to safeguard their economies.

📈 Core projections (2026–2031):

• Massive Capacity Growth: Global renewable power capacity is projected to increase by nearly 4,800 gigawatts (GW) over the next five years—an approximate 60% increase compared to the previous six-year period.

• Dominance of Solar: Solar PV is expected to account for more than three-quarters (75%) of all global renewable capacity additions.

• Share of Generation: Renewables currently account for roughly one-third of global electricity generation; they are on track to approach half (50%) of it by 2031.

🗺️ A "Widening Constellation": regional shifts...The IEA notes that the renewable expansion is truly global, with emerging and developing economies matching advanced economies' growth velocity for the first time.

• India: Positioned as a major alternative engine, India's renewable expansion is forecast to grow 2.6 times faster than in the previous six years. Furthermore, India is diversifying the supply chain, with its share of global solar PV module manufacturing expected to nearly double to 17%.

• China: Remains the largest market overall (accounting for 53% of global capacity growth), though it faces localized market headwinds and developer bankruptcies due to transitioning from fixed tariffs to competitive auction schemes.

• The Middle East & Africa: Regions like Southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East are expected to triple their capacity additions. Saudi Arabia is accelerating its deployment fivefold, signaling a structural step-change in petrostates.

⚠️ Critical challenges to resolve...While capacity is surging, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned of two major structural bottlenecks:

1. Grid Infrastructure and Backlogs: Advanced-stage renewable and storage projects waiting for grid connections skyrocketed by 60% over the past year to 3,000 GW—four times the capacity actually connected last year. Investment in electricity grids must drastically accelerate to prevent curtailment.

2. Supply Chain Risks: "The golden rule for energy security is diversification," says Birol. Avoiding a single trade route, single country (referencing China's historical dominance), or single company is vital for long-term system stability

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