TECH

High rare earth demand could complicate Europe's offshore wind ambitions

Wind turbines, devices that can convert energy from the wind into electricity, do not burn fuel during operation and could thus reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Despite their possible environmental advantages, building these devices depends heavily on the mines and factories supplying the metals they are made of.

Researchers at Johns Hopkins University and Adam Mickiewicz University in Poland recently examined how different renewable energy expansion plans could affect the European Union's mineral requirements. Their findings, published in Nature Energy, suggest that even if the EU builds fewer solar panels and wind turbines on land than planned, prioritizing the expansion of wind capacity at sea could still keep rare earth requirements almost as high as they would be under full expansion of both offshore and onshore technologies.

Counting more than gigawatts...The team modeled three possible paths for the expansion of renewable energy technologies in the EU's 27 member states through 2050. The first path assumed that the wind and solar capacity goals used in the study were met in full.

Another assumed that constraints slowed expansion across solar, onshore wind and offshore wind. The third prioritized offshore wind turbines while allowing slower growth of solar panels and onshore wind turbines.

Rather than predicting which of these scenarios is more likely to occur, the researchers set out to compare their possible outcomes. To do this, they translated each technology's additional generating capacity above 2023 levels into material requirements, using estimates of the amount of each material needed per unit of capacity.

Their analysis suggests that in the full-expansion scenario, the additional equipment would require approximately 5.8 million metric tons of copper and 74,200 metric tons of rare earth elements by 2050. These totals are for the added capacity, rather than annual demand. They cover the materials required for building generation equipment, excluding the additional materials that would be needed for power grids, energy storage and electric vehicles.

The team showed that a slower expansion across all three technologies reduced material requirements. Prioritizing offshore wind, however, did not appear to substantially reduce the rare earth requirements compared with full expansion.

Modeled EU solar and wind capacity in 2030 and 2050 under three expansion scenarios. The offshore-priority scenario has lower total capacity than full expansion, while keeping offshore wind capacity close to the benchmark. Credit: Nature Energy (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41560-026-02147-x

The offshore exception...The researchers' analyses suggest that by 2050, the offshore wind–focused scenario would yield about 22% less total installed wind and solar capacity than the full-expansion scenario. Nonetheless, its rare earth requirement would reach approximately 69,200 metric tons, retaining about 93% of the full-expansion total.

The explanation for this limited reduction lies inside the wind turbines. Many offshore designs employ permanent magnets in generators that convert rotation into electricity. These magnets contain rare earth elements with advantageous magnetic properties, such as neodymium.

In the team's model, offshore wind required considerably more rare earth material per unit of generating capacity than onshore wind. Keeping offshore installations near the full-expansion benchmark would therefore preserve most of the requirement for magnet materials, even as demand for several other minerals declined.

The model assumes that material requirements per unit of capacity remain constant. Future generators or magnets using fewer rare earth elements could lower the estimates, although replacing one material could increase demand for others, including copper or nickel.

Securing the steps between mine and turbine...Access to mineral deposits is only part of the supply challenge. A separate 2026 International Energy Agency report found that China accounted for 91% of global refined output of magnet rare earths in 2024.

Importantly, finding rare earth deposits outside China might not be enough. Factories are also needed to process the materials and turn them into usable magnets. As the authors write in their paper, therefore, "the offshore choice is fundamentally a geopolitical choice."

For countries investing in renewable energy, the researchers recommend checking whether renewable energy deployment plans ensure access to the materials and components their installations require. They also offer other suggestions for EU governments and renewable energy industry leaders, such as pooling mineral purchases and investing with international partners in refining and magnet manufacturing.

Finally, they propose establishing strategic reserves of vulnerable components, particularly finished permanent magnets. Such reserves could give turbine builders access to essential parts when export restrictions disrupt supplies.

High demand for rare earth elements has become a major bottleneck for Europe's offshore wind energy ambitions, creating a complex geopolitical and industrial challenge.

Below are the key points explaining how this dependency threatens the continent's climate goals:

⚙️ The role of rare earths in wind energy...Modern offshore wind turbines rely heavily on permanent magnet generators (PMGs).

• These generators utilize rare earth elements, primarily neodymium (Nd) and dysprosium (Dy).

• Rare earth magnets make turbines lighter, more efficient, and more reliable at sea, drastically reducing the need for maintenance in hard-to-reach environments.

⚠️ Key complicating factors:

• Supply chain monopoly: China controls the majority of global rare earth magnet mining, processing, and manufacturing. Europe's reliance on a single supplier creates extreme vulnerability to geopolitical tensions and export restrictions.

• Surging global demand: As Europe accelerates its offshore projects, other sectors (such as the transition to electric vehicles and the defense industry) are competing for the very same resources, driving up prices and causing shortages.

• Tight deadlines: The European Union has set aggressive targets to increase its offshore wind capacity by 2030 and 2050. However, opening new mines or developing alternative supply chains (such as recycling or local mining) can take 10 to 15 years. 🔄 European alternatives and responses:

To mitigate this risk, European industry and governments are exploring two main avenues:

1. Technological innovation: Development of turbines using alternative technologies (such as wound-rotor synchronous generators or geared turbines), albeit often at the cost of some efficiency or increased structural weight.

2. Critical Raw Materials Act: An EU initiative to diversify supply, accelerate domestic mining, and encourage the recycling of permanent magnets within Europe.

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