TECH

iPhone 17 success threatens Samsung's global leadership

According to Counterpoint Research, the success cycle of the iPhone 17 should lead Apple to surpass Samsung in global smartphone shipments in 2025, something that hasn't happened in 14 years. The consultancy projects that Apple will end the year with a market share of around 19.4%, slightly above the 18.7% estimated for its South Korean rival, in a market that is practically not growing.

This reversal does not result from a sudden surge in global demand, but from a relative gain within a mature sector, where every tenth of market share lost or gained translates into bargaining power, profitability, and influence over the ecosystem of applications and services. The "iPhone 17 effect" thus emerges as the visible catalyst for deeper trends: loyalty to iOS, the weight of services, and the fragility of Samsung's position in the mid-range segment in the face of Chinese competition.

Counterpoint Research predicts that Apple will ship approximately 243 million iPhones in 2025, compared to approximately 235 million Samsung smartphones, placing the Cupertino brand slightly ahead in annual volume. In terms of market share, this difference translates to 19.4% for Apple and 18.7% for Samsung, confirming a historic overtaking in a market where both operate near the saturation limit.

The study also estimates that the global smartphone market will grow by only about 3.3% in 2025, meaning that Apple will gain ground mainly at the expense of competitors and not through a significant expansion of the total "pie." In a context where aggregate volume is almost stagnant, the fact that the iPhone manufacturer projects growth of around 10%, compared to a timid advance of around 4.6% for Samsung, becomes the real breaking point.

How the iPhone 17 changed the equation...The consultancy attributes much of the upward revision of Apple's shipments to the performance of the iPhone 17 family, which includes the iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone 17 Pro Max, and iPhone Air. According to the report, sales of this generation surpassed those of the iPhone 16 in the first weeks after launch in key markets such as the United States and China, with double-digit growth in both cases.

Counterpoint analysts also highlight a "turning point" in the replacement cycle: many consumers who bought smartphones during the peak of the pandemic are now upgrading their devices, fueling demand for recent high-end models. In parallel, the second-hand market has created a base of hundreds of millions of users who entered the Apple ecosystem through used iPhones, many of whom are now in a position to move up to a new device.

While Apple focuses its efforts on the premium segment and extracting recurring revenue per user, Samsung relies heavily on the volume generated in the entry-level and mid-range segments, precisely where competitive pressure is most intense. Counterpoint and other observers point out that Chinese manufacturers like Xiaomi, Oppo, or vivo have captured significant market share at these price points, especially in emerging markets, squeezing Samsung's margins and room for maneuver.

The scenario projected for 2025 is clear: Samsung should grow in shipments, but at a rate roughly half that projected for Apple, which, in an anemic market, is enough to lose first place. Furthermore, Counterpoint itself warns that regaining leadership will be difficult if the South Korean brand does not address the structural weaknesses in the low and mid-range segments, given that differentiation in high-end and foldable models is not enough to compensate for the erosion of volume.

The success of the iPhone 17 alone does not explain the threat to Samsung's global leadership, but it makes visible a fundamental change: in a market with almost zero growth, the Apple model – focus on premium, closed ecosystem, and strong retention – proves to be more adapted than a strategy anchored in dispersed volume. For Samsung, the issue is no longer just regaining first place in shipments, but proving that it can return to profitable growth in a market where Chinese competition and loyalty to iOS have become permanent obstacles.

mundophone