TECH
The AI shock to employment
For a long time, the debate surrounding artificial intelligence and jobs seemed to belong to the distant future. That gap is closing rapidly. Companies are already automating tasks related to programming, customer service, analysis, and content creation, while workers try to figure out which skills will remain valuable. According to Mo Gawdat, a former Google executive, we are only at the beginning. His latest prediction sets a surprisingly near date for a transformation that could hit those currently entering the job market particularly hard.
Mo Gawdat, former Chief Business Officer at Google X, has been warning for some time that the advance of artificial intelligence will not be just another technological shift in the professional landscape.
In his view, the change could affect the very structure of traditional employment.
His latest estimate is particularly striking: by 2028, around 30% of jobs in certain sectors could disappear due to the accelerated adoption of AI.
This does not mean that three out of every ten jobs on the planet will inevitably cease to exist by that date.
This is Gawdat’s own prediction regarding sectors especially vulnerable to automation; other studies present considerably more complex scenarios, in which many professions are transformed rather than simply eliminated.
Even so, the former executive believes that the current pace of technological change makes it dangerous to expect a slow transition.
Tools that, just a few years ago, could only generate short texts now write code, analyze documents, research information, create presentations, and execute entire sequences of tasks.
And there is one group that may feel this shift before others.
Young people may find a much narrower entry point... Gawdat is particularly concerned about recent graduates.
For decades, many careers followed a relatively predictable structure. Entry-level professionals performed simpler tasks, learned from experienced colleagues, and gradually took on greater responsibilities.
Artificial intelligence is beginning to disrupt precisely that initial tier. Summarizing documents, producing preliminary reports, researching information, writing simple code, organizing data, and preparing materials are examples of activities that traditionally served as entry points for junior professionals.
Now, many of these tasks can be performed in seconds by generative systems.
This creates a paradox.
If companies need fewer entry-level workers, how will they develop the experienced professionals needed to fill leadership roles ten or twenty years from now?
For recent university graduates, Gawdat’s advice is not to try to compete directly with machines on speed.
He recommends learning to use these tools while simultaneously strengthening capabilities where the human element remains central.
Nurses, therapists, and human-centric roles fall into a different category... Among the examples Gawdat cites are professions such as nursing, counseling, and other activities built around human contact.
The logic is relatively simple.
An artificial intelligence system can analyze medical information, prepare a report, or answer questions. That does not mean it can fully replace the physical presence of someone caring for a patient.
The same applies to jobs that rely on trust, empathy, negotiation, responsibility, and complex interpersonal relationships.
This does not make these professions immune to AI.
They, too, will be transformed.
A healthcare professional might use intelligent systems to analyze medical records. A teacher could prepare materials using AI. A therapist might use digital tools for certain administrative tasks.
The difference lies in automating parts of the work without necessarily eliminating the human role at its core.
Meanwhile, some of the largest technology companies are already offering a glimpse of how this transformation might unfold.
Google itself expects its employees to use AI...Within Google, artificial intelligence has moved beyond being merely an experimental tool.
The company has been encouraging employees across various areas—including non-technical roles—to incorporate AI systems into their daily work routines.
Engineers use coding assistants. Sales teams can analyze conversations and prepare for meetings. Strategy professionals can accelerate the production of documents and reports.
The goal is not necessarily to remove the human from the process, but to alter what is expected of them.
If a task that once took three hours can be completed in 20 minutes with the help of AI, the benchmark for productivity inevitably begins to shift.
This effect can extend far beyond technology companies.
When an organization discovers that a specific team can produce more by using automation, competitors face pressure to do the same.
And it is precisely this dynamic that makes predictions about jobs so difficult.
Disappearing is not the only way a job can be affected... There is a vast difference between a job vanishing and having some of its tasks automated.
A lawyer can still exist even if an AI generates the first draft of a contract. A programmer remains necessary even if a system writes part of the code. A journalist does not automatically become obsolete simply because a machine can summarize documents.
What changes is the composition of the work.
Repetitive functions may decrease, while tasks involving supervision, decision-making, verification, and human interaction grow.
That is why predictions like Gawdat’s should be interpreted as scenarios rather than inevitable timelines.
The labor market also depends on economic growth, legislation, the cost of technology, business confidence, the creation of new professions, and workers' ability to adapt.
Yet, there is one part of his warning that seems increasingly less futuristic.
The discussion is no longer about whether artificial intelligence will be used in the workplace.
It is already being used.
The question that is starting to matter is different: when a machine can perform in minutes what used to take up a large part of a professional's day, what exactly will be the work left for that person to do?
Artificial intelligence is changing the workforce by boosting productivity in some sectors while displacing routine tasks in others, leading to a complex shift rather than an immediate jobs apocalypse
Current impact on employment:
-The "Apocalypse" is postponed: Broad, catastrophic unemployment has not materialized. Studies from organizations like the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research indicate that AI's overall effect on near-term employment numbers remains relatively small
-Productivity gains and growth: In some highly exposed professions, productivity gains have actually increased demand. For example, employment for paralegals and market-research analysts grew faster than the national average as AI tools helped them handle tasks more efficiently
-Visible reductions: Routine-heavy administrative and support roles have seen declines. Fields like customer service, secretarial work, and entry-level corporate recruiting face measurable headwinds and reduced new listings
-Entry-level pressures: New college graduates face a tougher job market, with entry-level listings dropping and application volumes surging as firms favor automation for foundational tasks
Why disruption is uneven:
-Messy jobs: Many roles are more AI-resistant than expected because they require complex human interaction, physical dexterity, or multitasking. Trades (plumbers, electricians) and specialized professionals (radiologists who also consult and comfort patients) remain largely insulated
-Double-edged career shocks: Research on Career Shocks in the Age of AI highlights that workers experience both positive shifts (optimized task processes, enhanced skills) and negative pressures (automation of specific duties)
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